Saturday, June 18, 2016

NLL Hall of Fame Prediction System

One time I tried to figure out who should be in the Hockey Hall of Fame. I gave two points for a first-team All-League selection, and one point for a second-team pick.The results were at least worthy of discussion.

So how does the same formula do in indoor lacrosse? Let's find out.

Here's the all-time leaders - at least 10 points. An asterisk means that person is in the Hall of Fame, with the Class of 2016 now included as well as the all-league teams from 2016:

* John Tavares - 30
* Gary Gait - 29
* Jim Veltman - 21
* Paul Gait - 19
* Dallas Eliuk - 16
Colin Doyle - 14
John Grant Jr. - 14
Dan Dawson - 13
* Tom Marechek - 13
* Josh Sanderson - 12
Matt Vinc - 11
Brodie Merrill - 10

We welcome Tavares and Sanderson to the club from this list. All of them are in the Hall or will be, it's safe to say.  So let's try the 6 to 9 range:

Shawn Evans - 9
* Bob Watson - 9
Kyle Rubisch - 8
* Tracey Kelusky - 7
Casey Powell - 7
* John Tucker - 7
Garrett Billings - 6
* Steve Dietrich - 6
* Sal LoCascio - 6
Mark Millon - 6
Rick Sowell - 6

Kelusky had a long, excellent career, and was a good choice for the '16 Class. Evans moves up to nine after a fine 2016. The outdoor game and injuries got in Powell's way. Millon left the NLL for the outdoor game, where he played five more years. That might hurt him here. Sowell made the all-pro team from 1990 to 1992, but was done playing in the indoor league after 1993.

Now for the rest:

5 – Tom Carmean, Anthony Cosmo, Rhys Duch, Dave Pietramala, Gavin Prout,

4 – Ryan Benesch, Ryan Cousins, Ted Dowling, Kevin Finneran, Duane Jacobs, Cody Jamieson, *Darris Kilgour, Jordan MacIntosh, Mark Matthews, Lewis Ratcliff, Ted Sawicki,

3 – Jake Bergey, Aaron Bold, Roy Colsey, Curtis Dickson, Jeff Jackson, Blaine Manning, Gee Nash, Brian Nikula, *Pat O’Toole, Mark Steenhuis, Shawn Williams

2 – Rob Blasdell, Sandy Chapman, John Conley, Chris Corbeil, *Pat Coyle, Callum Crawford, Joey Cupido, Ryan Dilks, John Fay, Jordan Hall, Athan Iannucci, Adam Jones, Derek Keenan, Evan Kirk, Brad Kotz, Rob Martino, Pat McCready, Ken Montour, Jim Moss, John Nastrant, Ryan Painter, Nick Patterson,  Mike Poulin, Brad Self, Jeff Shattler, Billy Dee Smith, Dhane Smith, Tim Soudan, Andrew Suitor, Steve Toll, Cam Woods, Taylor Wray,

1 – Mike Accursi, Stu Aird, Mac Allen, Chris Bates, Don Borges, Toby Boucher, Mike Carnegie, Scott Carnegie, Craig Conn, Mike Cummings, Matt Disher, Lindsay Dixon, Dane Dobbie, Chris Driscoll, Jesse Gamble, Jeff Gilbert, Mike Grimes, Rob Hellyer, Joe Hiltz, Tim Hormes, Jay Jalbert, Jeff Klodzen, Stephen Leblanc, Butch Marino, Ron Martinello, Brandon Miller, Dan O’Neill, John Orsen, Matt Panetta, Steve Priolo, Scott Self, Rob Shek, Geoff Snider, Kim Squire, Jeremy Thompson, Andrew Turner, Dillon Ward, Tim Welsh, Jeff Zywicki

0 - *Rich Kilgour, *Dan Stroup.

I don't know that much about some of the names, particularly those from more than a few years ago. Prout and Finneran were finalists for the last two years. They will go back into the pool with the rest of the candidates next year.

The people who have climbed the all-time lists in major categories - I am thinking of Cosmo, Williams, Ratcliff, Prout and Steenhuis in particular - probably have a better chance than these numbers indicate. Along those same lines, Accursi, Driscoll, Self and Derek Suddons were all in the all-time top ten in games played at the start of 2016, which at least should get them some consideration.

Duch and Jamieson look like they are on their way. I didn't really notice that Nikula had been an all-pro twice (one first, one second) when he was traded to Detroit by the Bandits for some guy named Tavares. Did you notice that Keenan now has four rings, two as a player (in two years, no less) and two as a coach? He may have wrapped up a spot with the latest championship. And it's interesting to see two guys who never made an all-pro team, first or second, make the Hall of Fame. Rich Kilgour and Stroup both played a long, long time, and longevity is a virtue.

We'll see how this year's all-league picks go, and see if it makes a bit of a difference for down the road. 

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