Thursday, June 26, 2025

Introducing Goals Created

Here's a statistic that has been floating around my brain for more than 30 years ... and it's time to apply it in a new way. 

Baseball writer Bill James once came up with a way of measuring offensive performance within the structure of the team. It was called Runs Created. The idea was to create a formula in which the individual totals of the players' contributions would add up to the number of runs scored by the team for a year. 

At some point around 1990, when I worked for the Sabres, I tried to do a simple version of that for hockey. I started with the reference point that a goal has two statistical components - the goal and the assist. Responsibility for a particular goal can vary on the play. Sometime the goal scorer does all the work. Sometime the assist is the key play. 

Therefore, I assigned 50 percent of the credit to the goal-scorer. So if Alexander Mogilny scores 50 goals, he gets credit for 25 goals created. That was the easy part.

But what about assists? The problem was that not all goals have two assists. So I did the math, and discovered that if you take about 30 percent of a players' assist total, you have the assist component. (I think the exact number was .306.) In other words, if you register 50 assists, you get credit for 15 goals. So a 50-50=100 player would get credit for creating 40 goals. Add those up for a particular team and they should - and did come close to the offensive output.

All right .... what about in indoor lacrosse?

I used the same technique for this sport - a 50/50 split in credit between goals and assists. The number for assists changes in lacrosse. During the past two years, there have been 6,027 goals, which becomes 3,013.5 in terms of credits. The assist total for those two years is 9,529. That puts the percentage at .316. It's a little higher than in the NHL. Then again, it's easier to complete passes in lacrosse because you are on two feet and not skates. 

(Footnote: That number has come down quite a bit over the years. Back in the early days of indoor lacrosse, there were fewer assists awarded so the number was around .400. It was down to .350 or so about 10 years later, and reached current levels in the 2010s.) 

With that done, let's see what a top 20 looks like for the 2024-25 season:

Name - Team - Goals - Assists - Goals Created

Josh Byrne - Buffalo - 44 - 90 - 22.0 + 28.4 = 48.4

Dhane Smith - Buffalo - 32 - 102 - 16.0 + 32.2 = 48.2

Connor Fields - Rochester - 46 - 77 - 23.0 + 24.3 = 47.3

Jeff Teat - Ottawa - 56 - 56 - 28.0 + 17.7 = 45.7 

Joe Resetarits - Philadelphia - 41 - 80 - 20.5 + 25.3 = 45.8

Keegan Bal - Vancouber - 43 - 69 - 21.5 + 21.8 = 43.3  

Curtis Dickson - Calgary - 48 - 60 - 24.0 + 19.0 = 43.0  

Mitch Jones - Philadelphia - 31 - 79 - 15.5 + 25.0 = 40.5

Jesse King - Calgary - 30 - 76 - 15.0 + 24.0 = 39.0

Ryan Lanchburg - Rochester - 25 - 27 - 89 - 13.5 + 25.3 = 38.8 

We can declare Josh Byrne of the Bandits as the goals created champion for 2024-25. He finished a whisker ahead of teammate Dhane Smith. They finished in a tie for points, but Byrne gets a bit more credit for having more goals. 

It's interesting that the list of top 10 here was completely unchanged from the scoring numbers, although the order was shuffled around slightly. Jeff Teat of Ottawa did move up from sixth to fourth. 

What happens when we add in the numbers from 2023-24? The top 10 changes, naturally, since we are covering two seasons:

Name - Team - Year - Goals - Assists - Goals Created

Josh Byrne - Buffalo - 2023-24 - 53 - 82 - 26.5 + 25.9 = 52.4

Jeff Teat - New York - 2023-24 - 58 - 72 - 29.0 + 22.8 = 51.8

Connor Fields - Rochester - 2023-24 - 56 - 64 - 28.0 + 20.2 = 50.2 

Josh Byrne - Buffalo - 2024-25 - 44 - 90 - 22.0 + 28.4 = 48.4

Dhane Smith - Buffalo - 2023-24 - 33 - 101 - 16.5 + 31.9 = 48.4

Dhane Smith - Buffalo - 2024-25 - 32 - 102 - 16.0 + 32.2 = 48.2

Connor Fields - Rochester - 2024-25 - 46 - 77 - 23.0 + 24.3 = 47.3

Jeff Teat - Ottawa - 56 - 56 - 2024-25 - 28.0 + 17.7 = 45.7 

Joe Resetarits - Philadelphia - 2024-25 - 41 - 80 - 20.5 + 25.3 = 45.8

Keegan Bal - Vancouver - 2024-25 - 43 - 69 - 21.5 + 21.8 = 43.3  

Looks like 2023-24 was a good season for the top scorers.  

Updated June 28, 2025

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Introducing Goals Created

Here's a statistic that has been floating around my brain for more than 30 years ... and it's time to apply it in a new way.  Baseba...