Saturday, June 18, 2016

NLL Hall of Fame Prediction System

One time I tried to figure out who should be in the Hockey Hall of Fame. I gave two points for a first-team All-League selection, and one point for a second-team pick.The results were at least worthy of discussion.

So how does the same formula do in indoor lacrosse? Let's find out.

Here's the all-time leaders - at least 10 points. An asterisk means that person is in the Hall of Fame, with the all-league teams from 2017:

* John Tavares - 30
* Gary Gait - 29
* Jim Veltman - 21
* Paul Gait - 19
* Dallas Eliuk - 16
Colin Doyle - 14
John Grant Jr. - 14
Dan Dawson - 13
* Tom Marechek - 13
* Josh Sanderson - 12
Brodie Merrill - 12
Matt Vinc - 11

All of these players are in the Hall or will be, it's safe to say.  So let's try the 6 to 9 range:

Shawn Evans - 9
* Bob Watson - 9
Kyle Rubisch - 8
* Tracey Kelusky - 7
Casey Powell - 7
* John Tucker - 7
Garrett Billings - 6
* Steve Dietrich - 6
* Sal LoCascio - 6
Mark Matthews - 6
Mark Millon - 6
Rick Sowell - 6

Evans has plenty in the tank and will make it. The outdoor game and injuries got in Powell's way. You'd have to think Billings has a chance, but there will be debate about him. Matthews is already on the arc to the Hall of Fame; it's just a matter of keeping it up. Millon left the NLL for the outdoor game, where he played five more years. That might hurt him here. Sowell made the all-pro team from 1990 to 1992, but was done playing in the indoor league after 1993.

Now for the rest:

5 – Tom Carmean, Anthony Cosmo, Rhys Duch, Dave Pietramala, Gavin Prout,

4 – Ryan Benesch, Ryan Cousins, Curtis Dickson, Ted Dowling, Kevin Finneran, Duane Jacobs, Cody Jamieson, *Darris Kilgour, Jordan MacIntosh, Lewis Ratcliff, Ted Sawicki,

3 – Jake Bergey, Aaron Bold, Roy Colsey, Jeff Jackson, Blaine Manning, Gee Nash, Brian Nikula, *Pat O’Toole, Mark Steenhuis, Dillon Ward, Shawn Williams

2 – Rob Blasdell, Sandy Chapman, John Conley, Chris Corbeil, *Pat Coyle, Callum Crawford, Joey Cupido, Ryan Dilks, John Fay, Jordan Hall, Athan Iannucci, Adam Jones, Derek Keenan, Evan Kirk, Brad Kotz, Rob Martino, Pat McCready, Ken Montour, Jim Moss, John Nastrant, Jason Noble, Ryan Painter, Nick Patterson,  Mike Poulin, Brad Self, Jeff Shattler, Corey Small, Billy Dee Smith, Dhane Smith, Tim Soudan, Andrew Suitor, Lyle Thompson, Steve Toll, Cam Woods, Taylor Wray,

1 – Mike Accursi, Stu Aird, Mac Allen, Chris Bates, Don Borges, Toby Boucher, Mike Carnegie, Scott Carnegie, Craig Conn, Kevin Crowley, Mike Cummings, Matt Disher, Lindsay Dixon, Dane Dobbie, Chris Driscoll, Jesse Gamble, Jeff Gilbert, Mike Grimes, Rob Hellyer, Joe Hiltz, Tim Hormes, Graeme Hossack, Shayne Jackson, Jay Jalbert, Jeff Klodzen, Stephen Leblanc, Butch Marino, Ron Martinello, Brandon Miller, Dan O’Neill, John Orsen, Matt Panetta, Mike Poulin, Steve Priolo, Scott Self, Rob Shek, Geoff Snider, Kim Squire, Jeremy Thompson, Jay Thorimbert, Andrew Turner, Tim Welsh, Jeff Zywicki

0 - *Rich Kilgour, *Dan Stroup.

The people who have climbed the all-time lists in major categories - I am thinking of Cosmo, Williams, Ratcliff, Prout and Steenhuis in particular - probably have a better chance than these numbers indicate. Along those same lines, Accursi, Self and Derek Suddons were all in the all-time top ten in games played at the start of 2017, which at least should get them some consideration. Are they Hall of Famers? I might need some convincing.

Duch, Dickson and Jamieson look like they are on their way, although Jamieson's injuries may get in the way. I didn't really notice that Nikula had been an all-pro twice (one first, one second) when he was traded to Detroit by the Bandits for some guy named Tavares.  And it's interesting to see two guys who never made an all-pro team, first or second, make the Hall of Fame. Rich Kilgour and Stroup both played a long, long time, and longevity is a virtue.

It will be interesting to see who the finalists are. Grant and Doyle are obviously in. That might be it, although, Ratcliff and Williams might draw support from voters. 

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