Like many of these short statistical essays, this starts with a question that came up in a game.
The Bandits had fallen behind by a score of 2-0 to Toronto early in the game. The Rock's thrashing of Buffalo three weeks before that was fresh in everyone's mind. That game included a 7-0 start for Toronto, which essentially ended the game shortly after it started.
So, when does a lead become a significant one? We need to go to the box scores of regular season games. (Since playoff games feature better competition on average, it's probably not fair to include them.)
The significance of a lead depends on a couple of factors. It's nice to be ahead, but it's nicer to lead later in the game. So let's see how the Bandits do with a lead at any point in a game, and then narrow it down.
I didn't bother with one- or two-goal leads for the game, because they are common enough to be rather meaningless for our purposes. Keep in mind that the Bandits won most of their games in this span, so the numbers skew high. And I should note that you only get credit for one lead of a particular margin (the biggest, of course) in a game. So here's what happens when Buffalo has been ahead in the regular season:
Lead - Record
Three-goal lead - 43-5
Four-goal lead - 36-2
Five-goal lead - 34-0
Six-goal lead - 23-1
Seven-goal lead - 18-0
Eight-goal lead - 11-0
Nine-goal lead - 9-0
10-goal lead - 6-0
11-goal lead - 5-0
12-goal lead - 2-0
15-goal lead - 1-0
It looks like the Bandits are tough to stop once they get up three (at least in the last few seasons). Now for the flip side:
Deficit - Record
Three-goal deficit - 13-14
Four-goal deficit - 5-15
Five-goal deficit - 0-10
Six-goal deficit - 1-6
Seven-goal deficit - 1-8
Eight-goal deficit - 0-4
Nine-goal deficit - 0-3
10-goal deficit - 0-3
11-goal deficit - 0-2
Let's narrow down the margins to those in the fourth quarter. If the Bandits were ahead by a certain number at any point of the period (including one second), it counts for these purposes. I've added two-goal stats here, because they can be significant in such a small time span.
Lead - Record
Two-goal lead - 22-4
Three-goal lead - 19-1
Four-goal lead - 18-0
Five-goal lead - 24-0
Six-goal lead - 14-0
Seven-goal lead - 12-0
Eight-goal lead - 7-0
Nine-goal lead - 9-0
10-goal lead - 6-0
11-goal lead - 5-0
12-goal lead - 2-0
15-goal lead - 1-0
The Bandits are money in the bank once they have a two-goal lead in the fourth quarter. Let's turn the numbers around:
Deficit - Record
Two-goal deficit - 8-13
Three-goal deficit - 3-8
Four-goal deficit - 1-12
Five-goal deficit - 0-8
Six-goal deficit - 0-5
Seven-goal deficit - 0-7
Eight-goal deficit - 0-2
Nine-goal deficit - 0-3
10-goal deficit - 0-3
11-goal deficit - 0-1
Based on this, it's rather safe to head to the exits or switch channels if the Bandits go down four. I'll be going back deeper into the team's history to see how these numbers change.
Updated on May 28, 2024
